WINTER WEATHER FORECAST FOR 2009/2010

If you've been watching us lately, then you've probably heard us talking about the weather phenomenon known as El Nino. Here's a better description on what that is...

El Nino happens when the water in the Pacific ocean off the south American coast gets warmer than it usually is.
A long time ago, fishermen noticed that fish they normally caught in this region of the Pacific were no where to be found. They noticed the water temperature being a bit warmer than usual. They contributed this to the lack of fish and a bad fishing season. It just so happened, that they noticed this happening around Christmas. So they gave it the name El Nino, meaning boy or the Christ child in spanish.
Years later this still happens every few years. But some times, the water temps drop and get colder than average. This was called the opposite, La Nina!
Weather patterns go in cycles and both El Nino and La Nina are typical cyclic weather patterns. Let's talk about our El Nino winter weather forecast

An El Nino weather pattern creates an active storm track across the southern U.S. This can lead to more clouds, rain, wind, and storms. When you get clouds, it can also keep the temperatures down. We've already seen this happening this fall season, with what looks like perhaps the second or third coolest October on record. (I'll update this again after Halloween) Also, as we see more storms moving through, possibly interacting with cold air from the north, it could get interesting in regards to winter precip!
Here's what I'm forecasting for the rest of Fall into Winter!

Temperatures will remain cooler than average. Sure, there will be periods where it warms up some, but overall, it should be cool!
Rainfall should be above average too.
I also expect a better than average chance of seeing a major ice or snow storm across Texoma.

So there you have it! Your winter weather forecast and a little explanation on El Nino! Dress warm this winter and stay dry!
 

Now that fall is here, we're looking at changing weather patterns which can lead to big swings in temperatures. The reason for this is that summer isn't quite ready to give up just yet, but winter is trying to move in. As a result, some days are summerish, where as some are fallish! These big swings can also allow for big storm systems to form. These can some times produce severe weather events and we are entering our shorter fall severe weather season. Typically, we don't get as many big severe weather events with the fall season as we do with the spring season...
This year's weather pattern will be influenced by the weather pattern known as El Nino. That's where the water in the Pacific off the south American coast are warmer than average. This can create an active storm track across the southern U.S. Resulting in more rain and could even enhance severe weather potential across the southern states in the fall, winter, and spring. Not saying it will be that way this year, but it is something to watch out for.
Also, this can make it interesting for winter weather. With a more active storm track in this part of the country...the opportunity could present itself a little more than usual for ice and snow. Again, not forecasting that yet. I want to wait and see how this El Nino affects the weather pattern this year as we get deeper into the cool season. But I am at least thinking more active weather....

Even thought he calendar still says summer, meteor logically, it's over. Weather records are kept as such...
Winter
December, January, February
Spring
March, April, & May
Summer
June, July, and August
Fall
September, October, & November

This summer was near average. There were some really hot days and even record setting heat. There was also a few cooler days mixed as we ended the summer on a cool note.
Rainfall was close to average as well!

Here are the numbers...
The average high temperature was 95 and the average low was 71...That gave us an average temperature of 84 degrees. This was 2 degrees above where we were supposed to be. So a little warmer...

We saw an even 7 inches of rain. That was below average by .66 inches. So just a little dry.

 Of course, on the calendar, fall doesn't arrive until September 21 and we have more cool days to look forward to in the future. At least football season is back!

Make sure to watch through the football season for your favorite teams weather forecast. We'll do Texas Tech, OU, Texas, and Mid Western State.
 

July was an up and down month. We started the month with temperatures 100 or higher through July 4th. A front brought it's own fireworks on the night of July 4th with numerous thunderstorms. We cooled down some on the 5th through 7th with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. Lows at night dipped into the 60s. The coolest reading of the month was 64 set on July the 6th.
The heat kicked back in with 105 or higher from July 8th-16th. That's eight consecutive days with temperatures at or above 105!
The second half of the month brought about a different story. The jet stream, which is typically located across the northern half of the country, shot southward. This brought about several cool fronts and waves of storms at times. Most days saw highs in the 80s and 90s with lows back down in the 60s and 70s. The coolest day was on the 27th when our highs didn't get out of the 70s here in Wichita Falls.
We also saw some decent rainfall amounts for the month of July, with measurable rain on 4, 20, 21,27, 28, and 30th. Rainfall totals 2.93, that's above 1.53 above average.
Here are the average temperatures for the month...

Avg. High - 97.3 (which is -0.1 degree below average)
Avg. Low - 71.5 (which is -0.9 degree below average)

When you take the average high and low, add them together and divide by 2, this gives us an average temperature of 84.4, which is -0.4 degrees below where we should be)

Looking ahead to August...
Historically, the early part of August is the hottest time of the year and this year it will live up to it's reputation.
The heat pump will control our weather on and off through the second week in the month. This means temperatures at or above 100 on most days. There's little sign of any significant rain in the forecast through the 15th. This is good news for the Persiede meteor shower that takes place on the 12th.

Check back for more updates later this month on the August heat and updates on the devastating drought across south Texas.

What a terrific treat for late July. Typically THIS IS THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR! With average temperatures up close to 100. Most days this week have been 91 or lower. The jet stream, which drives weather systems and fronts across the globe is unusually active right now across the U.S. Typically this feature stays up close the U.S./Canadian border until the fall. But it's taking a rare July dip across the central and eastern U.S.
While it will heat up on Friday and Saturday with a return to near 100 degree temps, this will be temporary! The jet stream will stay in the exact same position for the next one to two weeks. This means more fronts headed our way. We should see another front move in late Saturday into Sunday, bringing a rain threat and dropping the temperature back down again..I'm not sure it will be in the 80s  but lower to middle 90s is certainly possible.
More rain is in the forecast next week as perhaps more fronts head our way.
It is summer and meteorologically it will be through the end of August and we will see more heat, with 100 degree days!
This type of weather pattern is also keeping tropical storms and hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic basin. So far, no named storms! June and July typically don't bring much action, although Hurricane Dolly slammed the Texas and Mexico coastline a year ago today! (july 23, 2008) Activity usually picks up in mid August into September, before slowing down in October. Lets hope we don't get many storms. But all it takes is one storm to make this season historical!
 We are in a weather pattern phase known as El Nino. This is where the water in the Pacific warms. This affects the overall global weather pattern, resulting in stronger winds across the tropical Atlantic. Not favorable for tropical development. It's likely that the El Nino pattern could be responsible for creating an unseasonably strong upper level jet stream across the U.S. If it persists into the winter then, it could be wetter and cooler than average across the southern U.S. We'll know more about that and have an official winter forecast later on this fall. That's the way the weather is!
 

A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for north Texas on Tuesday May 28th. This was the first weather watch that's been issued in about 2 weeks anywhere in the U.S. It's been many years since we've gone that long without a weather watch during the month of May, which is the most active months for severe weather and tornadoes of the year...
We have what's called a "blocky" weather pattern across the globe. There are areas of high pressure that acts like a wall that are placed in several areas. One has been across the north Atlantic. The other has been across Alaska. This is keeping storm systems from progressing across the world.
It's this pattern that has kept the jet stream locked up in Canada. This has created very weak winds across the lower 48 in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This has kept storm systems weak and severe weather at a low. You need the wind to help generate powerful thunderstorms. This keeps rain from falling into the updrafts, where warm, moist air feed the storm. The rain, cools this area and causes the storm to be short lived and weak. The lack of winds has also kept storms from spinning.
I expect this blocky pattern with limited chances for severe weather to continue into the first few days of June. But there is some sign of life around the early to mid June time frame. There is reason to believe that the jet stream could take a dip again, producing some stronger winds in the upper atmosphere again across the middle and northern part of the country and severe weather could become active, especially in Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas...As well as Colorado. Some of this could affect the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma...

So far this severe weather season, we haven't seen too much in the way of bad weather. Sure, there have been a few events that have brought large hail and some gusty winds, along with heavy rainfall and flooding. I can only remember off the top of head 2 reports of weak spin up tornadoes in Montague county. Montague county has been the hot spot this year. Especially Nocona. Just Friday night large hail struck the town for the second time this year and a few tornado warnings. Fortunately, nothing touching down.
Weather systems were very strong early in the year. March and April feature a line up of strong storm systems, but these brought dry, windy weather to Texoma and storms to the east of us.
Since, weather systems have been much weaker. Jet stream winds have been fairly weak over us and storm systems haven't been strong enough to create strong low level wind shear, thus limiting tornado potential. Most of what we've seen has been a result of strong instability. That in itself can bring very large hail and small tornadoes. Big severe weather events with large violent tornadoes need stronger winds throughout the atmosphere and especially the lower levels of the atmosphere to spin.
Weather models indicate that weak wind fields will continue across Texoma through the middle of this month as the strong jet stream winds shift into the northern and eastern U.S. A large ridge of high pressure looks to control us for the most part, meaning mostly dry, warm to hot weather.
This is good news as it takes us through the later part of our severe weather season. I'm not saying there won't be thunderstorms with fronts at times, but a high end severe weather event seems very unlikely. This isn't the news storm chasers want to hear. Believe it or not, some people save their money all year and plan their vacation around this time of the year to come out this way to chase storms. The last thing they want to see is a ridge of high pressure, cramping any ideas of capturing a tornado.
Of course things can change. The peek of the U.S. tornado season is around Memorial Day weekend, which is typically at the end of May. So late May/Early June would be the peek of it. This time of the year, Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle are the main areas to look at for tornadic activity.
 

Active Storm Period On The Horizon?

Several days of strong south winds should really help pull Gulf moisture northward by the weekend. At the same time, a large, slow moving storm system will drop down the west coast of the U.S. and slowly move in our direction. As this occurs, winds in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will increase some as we see a possible dry line sets up across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The air east of the dry line could become unstable, providing fuel for thunderstorms to develop by Saturday afternoon and Sunday. There's some questions with this however. The air at cloud level will be warming, creating what's called a cap on the atmosphere. This keep clouds from growing into thunderstorms. However, if storms are able to form, they would likely be severe.
A better threat could come on Sunday as the main storm system moves a little closer. This may help push a cold front further south into southern Planes. This, combined with the dryline could help produce a better chance for storms. Again the air could be unstable and with stronger winds present throughout the atmosphere, severe weather could be possible.
We could see the storm threat linger into early next week with the slow movement of this storm system and the possibility of another storm moving into the area.
 

So far this severe weather season, we haven't seen much in the way of severe storms in Texoma. However, we're now entering that time of the year when we see our most active storms.

Up until now, weather systems that have crossed the area have been very strong, but moisture hasn't been present to give us any real threats for big time severe storms. However, the Gulf typically opens up starting in late April into May and warm moist air more easily surges northward. As weather systems move through, stronger storms are more likely to form. We also see an increase in activity along the dryline across the Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas.

Hail, high winds, and tornadoes will be something to look out for now, through the end of May and perhaps into early June.

Next week looks mainly quite, but we might see some stronger southwesterly winds at cloud level try to organize late April or early May. This could be a period to watch out for some active storms...

A large slow moving storm system will pay Texoma a visit on Thursday, into Friday. This low kind of looks "cut off." Meaning the main jet stream, which steers weather systems across the globe will lift north of this weather system, causing it to cut-off to the south. This means a very slow easterly movement is expected.