We did manage to fall to 32 early Tuesday morning in Wichita Falls, which makes this the second time this year we've seen temperatures fall to the freezing mark here. There was much frost, thanks to the fact that winds stayed up just enough to prevent frost from forming. To see frost, you need calm winds. This allows for the ice to form on grass and elevated surfaces. The current quick shot of cool air will quickly be exiting off to our east later tonight. The air is still dry and cool enough to allow for temperatures to fall into the 30s in most spots. Temperatures will be chilly first thing in the morning, but south winds and plenty of sunshine will quickly warm things up. We should see highs in the middle and upper 70s. Keep in mind, any warm weather we see will be brief. I'm already watching our next surge of cool air building to the north across Canada. This next wave should come down on Thursday. This air is probably the coolest we've seen so far. Again the brunt is to our north and east, but it will come down far enough to really cool us off. Highs on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will likely not get out of the 50s. Lows will dip into the 30s and 40s.

The Weekend

There is another system and cool front that will be dropping southward this weekend into early next week. It's kind of early to tell just how strong this next system will be. There are at least some indications that a little moisture may try to work up from the south and could possibly give us a small rain threat late in the weekend or early next week. Some of our weather models don't think there will be much cool air behind this front. However, other information says more cool air is on the way. Given the way our current weather pattern is, I wouldn't be surprised to see cooler air here with this system again. We'll hold off on putting any rain chances in the 7 day forecast for now, but will mention the possibility. Also, we'll keep temperatures closer to 60 early next week, but we may have to trend that downward and we get better information.

Thanksgiving

It still looks like some kind of a storm system affecting the region close to Thanksgiving, with perhaps some rainfall. It's way too early to say for sure, but it is something that consistently shows up on the weather maps and we may have to start thinking that way. We'll have more updates on that to come.

On Sunday morning, for the first time during the fall season, temperatures dropped below the freezing mark across most of Texoma. The average first freeze in a given year typically happens from late October into the middle of November. This year was no exception and was right on target for when we normally get it. The cold air did not stick around for long. We were already back in the 70s by Sunday afternoon and again on Monday afternoon. There is a weak front moving through and this will bring another shot of slightly cooler air for tonight and Tuesday. The weather pattern is very active with cool fronts moving through every 2 to 3 days. So we'll warm up on Wednesday, only to cool back down again either Thursday or Friday.

Down the road

We may wind up seeing another shot of cool air with yet another front late in the weekend or by early next week. There's some conflicting information on the weather maps. So say we'll stay dry, while others suggest perhaps a little rain late in the weekend or early next week. We'll keep our 7 day forecast dry for now and monitor any possible changes.

Thanksgiving Week?

It looks like we'll see another warm up around Thanksgiving, with perhaps a front or a storm system the weekend after Thanksgiving. Remember, we talked about this one last week. It looked much worse on the weather maps last week than it does now. But it is still several days away and like I always say, we'll fine tune as we get closer and get better more reliable information. With long range, we just look at trends and possibilities. That's what's nice about the blog. I can let you know what we looking at a long way out.

Our cool front blasted through early this morning and winds have been howling out of the north ever since. The really cool air is several hundred miles behind the front and will arrive here by this evening. By morning, most locations should be down in the 30s, but the wind will be blowing, giving us real feel or wind chill values in the teens and 20s. Saturday looks like a cool blustery day, with temperatures likely not making it out of the 50s. We'll stick with a high of 57 to 59 for our high. The latest weather data shifts the cool air out of the area late Saturday night, preventing us from getting really cold. High pressure will be on top of us and winds should be light. I'll still forecast a low of 32, but it will be a close call in many spots. That warning trend is something that I'll watch closely.

We're still looking at a few fronts dropping this way next week. The first comes through on Monday, keeping temperatures a bit on the cool side. We'll also be watching another front around Thursday. No rain is forecasted with any of those.

The weather maps still show a storm around Thanksgiving. If this storm does indeed develop, then we could see a chances for rain. Not saying that will happen but it is something to watch for in the coming days.

I want to thank the 1st grade class at Fowler Elementary School in Wichita Falls for inviting me to come out and speak to the kids about weather. It was a lot of fun and the kids were so smart!

A strong cold front is set to roar through Texoma on Friday morning. It could bring with it a few passing clouds, but no rain is expected. The wind is really going to pick up after the front moves through and it should be a cool blustery afternoon. North winds could gust up to 40 at times. Temperatures will top out in the 60s. The really cool stuff won't get here until Friday night. That's when lows should drop into the 30s. Saturday looks like a cool breezy day, with temperatures likely struggling to make it to 60. Saturday night into Sunday morning is when the center of the cool airmass should be on top of us. Skies will be clear and winds will be near calm. This will allow perfect conditions for maximum cooling. Lows should be in the 20s and lower 30s, leading to the first wide spread frost and freeze of the season. As mentioned yesterday, the cool air won't stick around long, It should warm back up on Sunday, with highs close to 70 by afternoon. The weather pattern does remain very progressive, with another cool front moving through on Monday. The air behind this front doesn't look as cool. We'll probably see highs drop back in the 60s and lows stay in the 40s.

Another Cold Blast?

The weather maps show another surge of cold air heading southward on Wednesday of next week. It looks like the brunt of the cold air with this one will stay north and east of us, but our temperatures will get chilly again for a short while later next week.

Weekend Before Thanksgiving Storm?

The weather maps show a major storm system rolling through the southern US around Saturday the 22nd. If this happens, then there could be quite a bit of rain in places and perhaps some severe weather. There could even be a blizzard to the north where the air is cold enough. It's way too early to say if this will even happen. As usual, I just mention things that show up this far out so you'll know what we're watching for. Historically, the time frame around Thanksgiving has produced some big severe weather outbreaks across the south. Not so much here as places to our east.

It looks like we'll see a couple of very nice fall days weatherwise, before a quick moving shot of cold air invades Texoma for part of the weekend.

South winds will kick in by Thursday. This will really warm things up. We could be looking at highs well into the 70s. Not record highs, but still warm for mid November. The BIG cold front should move through Friday afternoon. Behind the front, winds will really start to howl out of the north. I wouldn't be surprised to see some gusts Friday afternoon above 30mph. This should help bring that colder air southward. Lows Friday night will dip into the 30s, but the wind will stay up, giving us wind chills in the 20s. Saturday will still feature blustery conditions and should be quite cool. Despite full sunshine, we may struggle to make it to 60. We'll stick with the idea of 50s in most spots for now. Saturday night into Sunday is when the center of cold high pressure will be right on top of us. Skies will be clear and winds will be light. This should allow for temperatures to drop into the 30s and frost and maybe even a freeze across a good portion of Texoma. This surge of cold air will be a quick one. In fact, the main surge will be to our east. The weather patter does remain very active and the cold air should be out of here by Sunday afternoon. Milder days should be around into early next week.

Later Next Week

Our upper level winds will stay out out of the north and that could deliver some more cold air later next week. There's still no big signs of significant rain any time soon.

We still have a progressive southern branch of the jet stream. This means our winds at cloud level are out of the west to southwest at times. This is still sending a series of disturbances in our direction. There is no moisture to work with here, so I'm not forecasting rain, but there could be a few added clouds to the sky. It looks like any rain would be to our south and east. That's not really a good thing. The Dallas Fort Worth area was hammered with heavy storms last night that produced wide spread power outages and flooding. The rain with this system shouldn't be that heavy and storms should not be severe.

Now, back to our weather! The weather really looks good both Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will stay mild in the 60s and 70s for highs and lows in the 40s. Friday is when things quickly change!

Our wind will no longer be out of the west or southwest at cloud level. Instead, they'll blow hard out of the northwest. This is going to send a build up of Arctic air southward into the lower 48. The Arctic front should blast through Texoma on Friday and the winds will really pick up out of the north behind the front, sending cold air into Texoma. Lows Friday night will dip into the at least the 30's but wind chill values could be lower. Highs on Saturday may not make it out of the 50s. It looks like the center of the Arctic high will be right on top of us and the winds could go calm, allowing for temperatures to dip at or below the freezing mark for the first time area wide this fall season. Right now we'll go with 32, but I want to warn you that this airmass is very cold and it may be lower than that. As always, we'll fine tune as needed.

On Down The Road

It still looks cold. The way it looks right now is there will be another surge of cold air coming down about a week from now and perhaps another one by the end of next week. The latest GFS model (just one of the computer models we look at that show us various weather features) suggest we could see some wintry precip at some point with that next system. I won't forecast that for now, but thought I would mention it. It's still a little early to be talking about wintry precip at this point, but it is going to feel more like winter.

Colder Days Ahead?

The weather early this week will be mild to warm. Sure, there will be a cool front dropping through on Tuesday, but the air behind it isn't very cool. I am watching a new weather pattern trend. The weather maps are wanting to change the direction in which our upper level winds (jet stream) are blowing from. We've been looking at winds at cloud level out of the southwest. This has lead to a few storms and mainly mild weather across Texoma. However, by the end of the week, they'll become more northerly. This could pull a developing dome of cold air southward into the lower 48. If the current trends continue, then we could be looking at our first best chance for seeing a wide spread frost or freeze with this air by the weekend. Either way, it does look to be turning much cooler.

The overall weather pattern looks cooler. If the pattern holds, we could be looking at several waves of cool/cold air headed our way through the end of the month.

Afternoon Storms...

A storm center, located just up to our northwest pulled a narrow tongue of moisture northward into parts of Texoma. As the storm energy began affecting us, a few showers and storm did manage to develop along the dryline. One cell in Wichita County did produce a little hail north and west of Burkburnett. That storm weakened as soon as it moved into Cotton county. Other showers developed from Wichita Falls southward toward Archer City. These were not strong or severe.

As we get into the evening hours, it looks like the main activity will shift east of us. Later tonight a cool front will move in from the north and should move through by Tuesday. Temperatures could be a little cooler behind it, but no big shots of cold air are expected. At least, not early this week. That could change by the end of the week. Right now, I'm targeting Thursday for our next front. This one could tap some Arctic air up to the north and temperatures could really turn cool by Friday and especially Saturday. We could be looking at our first true wide spread freeze over the weekend. We'll have more on that later i the week. The weather pattern looks cool as we head on down the road as well. As of right now, it does not look like we'll have any big rain threats down the road.

It was another beautiful fall day across all of Texoma. Cool fall temperatures and not a cloud in the sky. I expect more of this on Saturday, but changes could come about on Sunday as another in a series of storm systems heads this way.

First, if your going to be heading out to the Rider/Old High football game this evening, grab that jacket. Temperatures will drop quickly after the sun sets. I expect 50s throughout the game. Winds will not be a factor at all, which is great news. By morning, I do expect lows in the upper 30s and 40s. Again, more of the same is expected on Saturday.

Onto Sunday...

A storm will be quickly developing over the Rockies. This is going to cause the pressure gradient to tighten across the area, leading to more breezy conditions. Temperatures will stay on the mild side. It should stay dry, but late at night and during the day on Monday, as the main storm system swings across, we could see just enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers. At this time, it doesn't look like anything major. In fact, a lot of the rain could wind up being off to our east. We may have a shot at seeing an isolated storm or two. If we get anything, then hail would be the main threat. SPC has us in the slight risk for Sunday night, but I'm not going to play that up too much at this time. If the systems slows enough to allow more moisture to get involved on Monday, then we may worry more about strong storms. Matt will have more on that this weekend. Cooler weather will move in behind the front. How cool, is still up in the air.

If you read the blog yesterday, I talked about an active weather pattern. We'll it still looks that way again today. The southern branch of the jet stream is going to stay active, sending Pacific storms across the southern U.S. I call them that because the origin is over the Pacific and not Canada. I'm thinking one will come along about every 2 to 4 days. I'm not certain if these will bring us rain, it all depends on the track. We'll keep it a bit unsettled weather wise on the 7day into next week, but not go overboard or anything.

Temperatures look cool, but not super cold. Mainly 50/60s for highs and 40/50s for lows.

We may see a bit of a break in the active weather pattern by next weekend, but the weather maps want to reload and see more systems our way in about 2 weeks. Plenty of time to watch for those.

The southern branch of the jet stream will be very active as we head into next week. This will throw a storm in our direction about every 3 to 4 days. This could mean better rain chances. Lets hope so!

First our current weather looks great. Cool dry air has settled in on the back side of Wednesday's storm. Lows tonight with a cool dry airmass in place look to drop into the 30s across most of the area. I suppose there could be a little light frost in a few spots if the winds die off long enough. Sunshine and pleasant weather is expected on both Friday and Saturday. The changes come about on Sunday.

The first in a series of storms will be developing off to our west. This could create more windy weather across Texoma. It also keep mild conditions around. Sunshine is expected on our 7day forecast, but clouds cold roll in late in day or at night. It looks like the developing storm will swing through the area late Sunday night into Monday. If everything comes together, it could bring us some rain. It's too early to tell whether or not this would have any severe potential with it. I did notice some rather cold air showing up at cloud level and a surge of moist air just ahead of it. This may lead to some instability and we could see a few storms. I'm not going to forecast that yet, but I'll keep an eye on it. Cool weather will return in the departing storm system's wake. But another fast moving system looks to move in around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Early signs point to this one being a potent system with rain and some severe weather, mainly to our east. That one is way too far out to get specific with. In fact both systems are still several days away. The forecast will be fine tuned as needed.

The type of weather pattern that we're in can make for challenging forecasts, with rain chances, clouds, and temperatures. That's why you'll want to stay tuned everyday to the forecast and keep up with any changes.

Everybody have a great night and we'll see you tomorrow.